Google Gemini was used to research this piece. This Essay was posted on 8/5/2026.
Donald Trump seems to be playing with the stock market as he keeps bouncing between fighting and pausing in his war with Iran. When he bombs Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closes down and interrupts the oil supply, the stock market fumbles in a downward direction. But a pause and a glimmer of of a deal appears, Hormuz opens up and the stock market has a stroke of optimism as it bounces back up. This pattern has cycled enough to think that maybe some serious news watchers might be making some money each time the market flip-flops.
Another group of money makers are the oil companies that have other sources of oil, like ExxonMobil. Exxon does some business with the Saudis, so it is taking a hit on the lack of oil coming through Hormuz, but Exxon also has wells in North and South America. The Western hemisphere oil is priced at a different rate than the oil from the Middle East, but the Middle East shortage created by Hormuz closures puts a higher demand for Western hemisphere oil, for example, raising its price. Clearly, closing down Hormuz puts money in Exxon’s pocket.
There could be a break-through on the Iran War at any time, but I don’t think Trump is working very hard on a solution at least as long as he owns a considerable number of shares in ExxonMobil, and he continues to make frequent trades in the stock market.
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