Google Gemini was used to research this piece. This Essay was posted on 12/2/2025.
Donald Trump should never become Chairman of the Federal Reserve, because his grasp of basic economics is highly questionable. Trump exposed his weakness in economics in South Korea when he bragged about the high GDP increase of 3.8% in the second quarter of this year. He went on to predict that this rate would be sustained into the future, framing the US economy as the healthiest economy in the world. He is completely wrong.
The long-term forecast for US growth in GDP is a modest 2%. In contrast, China’s growth is projected to be about 4% and India’s growth is projected to be about 6%. There is a real disconnect between Donald Trump and the real economic experts.
As I reported in September, the low first quarter numbers and the high second quarter numbers can be attributed to tariffs. Companies over-imported in the first quarter of 2025 in anticipation of paying for tariffs in the near future. And because they over-imported in the first quarter, they under-imported in the second quarter. Imports reduce the GDP, so first quarter numbers were artificially reduced and second quarter were artificially increased. The future doesn’t depend on this one-time arithmetic quirk in the GDP calculation, and Donald Trump should know better.
I don’t know how much Trump knows or doesn’t know, but I know that he has access to the same data that I used in this article. And I know that Donald Trump should not be making economic decisions based on the inflated second quarter numbers.
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